Turkey's newly established
National Intelligence Academy has published an extensive study on the recent
(hypothetical) "Israeli-Iranian" war. The analysis is significant not
just as a case study of a major regional confrontation, but because of a stark
conclusion: Turkey itself could be the target of a similar war in the future,
and it must learn the lessons of this conflict to prepare.
The Assessment
The National Intelligence Academy was founded in January 2024 and officially
announced by Intelligence Chief İbrahim Kalın in October of the same year. Operating as a higher
education institution within the intelligence service, its stated goal is to
bring an academic dimension to intelligence work through research, education,
and public analysis on intelligence and national security. Its reports are thus
intended for the public, academia, and intelligence personnel alike.
On August 1st, the
Academy released a detailed, 58-page report titled "The 12-Day War and Lessons for Turkey." The study is structured with an introduction, three
main chapters covering traditional and hybrid warfare techniques, assessments and lessons learned, and
potential scenarios, before concluding with a final chapter: "Conclusions
and Steps Turkey Must Take."
In his introduction,
the Academy's President, Dr. Talha Köse, framed the Israeli-Iranian war within
two primary contexts: the fallout from the October 7, 2023 attacks, and the
failure of U.S.-Iran negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.
According to the study,
the war showed that both Iran and Israel had shifted their previous strategies,
marking a new turning point for the region. The key assessments included:
·
Iran suffered greater losses due to Israel's use of a surprise attack, its
significant military superiority, advanced intelligence techniques, and crucial
support from allies (a clear reference to the United States).
·
Israel’s hope for a popular uprising inside Iran to topple the regime did not
materialize. The report notes that Iranians abroad largely stood with their
people and their state's independence.
·
The
war proved the critical importance of air power in short conflicts, especially between nations with
no shared land borders. This worked decisively in Israel's favor, a gap Iran
attempted to close with its hypersonic ballistic missiles.
·
The
study also emphasized non-military elements like cyberattacks, information warfare, propaganda, and Israel's deep
intelligence and operational network inside Iran. Civil defense capabilities,
such as early warning systems and shelters, were also highlighted as decisive.
The Implications for Turkey
This is where the
report pivots critically. It doesn't just analyze the Iran-Israel war as an
external event; it explicitly frames the findings as "lessons for Turkey," positioning the country as a regional power that
could face a similar scenario.
This aligns with a
statement from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the start of that war, where he stressed the
need for Turkey to develop its defense industries and its ability to protect
its territory and citizens. It also echoes a recent analysis from the SETA
foundation by military researcher Murat Aslan, which warned that Turkey must
prepare for a potential two-front aerial attack, explicitly naming Greece and Israel.
The primary lessons for
Turkey, according to the Academy's report, are:
1.
Dominance Through Air Power: The war underscores the urgent need for Turkey to
continue developing its domestic defense industry, integrate manned and
unmanned systems (drones), and modernize its air fleet. This includes its
ongoing efforts to purchase F-16 fighters from the U.S. (after being removed from
the F-35 project, a hope it has not entirely abandoned) and
Eurofighter jets from European sources.
2.
Multi-Layered Air Defense: The study calls for Turkey to acquire multi-layered air defense systems deployed across the country, as well as developing
its own hypersonic missile capabilities, which proved effective in the
conflict. The report also notes that the quantity of the arsenal is as important as its technological
superiority.
3.
Hardening the Homeland: A second crucial lesson is the necessity of a
modern civil defense system. The report prioritizes advanced early warning systems and a network of secure, widespread public
shelters. It attributes Iran's significantly higher civilian casualties to its
lack of such systems, which Israel possessed.
4.
Information and Cyber Sovereignty: The report warns of the danger of electronic
warfare, espionage networks, and information warfare. It stresses the need to
develop domestic alternatives for communication and information-sharing systems,
especially for state institutions and personnel in sensitive positions.
5.
Strengthening the Home Front: Finally, the study points to the importance of internal unity in any state facing a hybrid war. This is crucial
to withstand propaganda and influence operations designed to sway public
opinion. This directly echoes President Erdoğan's recent framing of his
policies on the "Kurdish issue" as a necessary step to "strengthen the home front" amid accelerating regional developments.
The Unspoken Conclusion
Although Turkey
carefully maintained a neutral stance during the 12-day war, seeking to mediate
between Tehran and Washington, the National Intelligence Academy's report
confirms a major shift in Ankara's strategic thinking. Turkey now sees itself as a potential target for a
similar future war, specifically from Israel—even if the study does not state this directly.
This perspective
elevates the importance of the lessons learned. Ankara is no longer just an
interested regional observer but a potential protagonist. What makes this
conclusion inescapable is that nearly all the "lessons for Turkey"
detailed in the report are related to enhancing its offensive and defensive
capabilities in a potential conflict with Israel, not Iran.
Is this intelligence assessment a sign of an
inevitable future conflict, or a necessary and prudent step in strategic
deterrence for a major regional power? 🤔
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strategic landscape of the Middle East! 📲💬
TAGS:
TURKEY, ISRAEL, INTELLIGENCE, GEOPOLITICS, DEFENSE, HYBRID WARFARE, ERDOĞAN
