America chooses its president: figures and stakes of a crucial vote in the midst of a pandemic
Will Donald Trump be reappointed to the White House for another four years or will he give up his seat to Barack Obama's former right-hand man, Joe Biden, the poll favourite? Polls that predicted Hillary Clinton's victory four years ago.
Will the polls be wrong again?
On November 9, 2016, against all expectations, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States with more than two million votes less than his Democratic rival. But in the U.S. electoral system, what counts is winning a majority of the electorate. Donald Trump won 306, Hillary Clinton 232.
The U.S. Electoral College has a total of 532 members in 50 states. Whoever wins a majority of the 270 electors is elected to the White House. Some states have a lot of influence. California alone has 55 electors. Other states include Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania and Illinois.
The other peculiarity of these American elections is the Swing States, the pivotal, undecided states that have no real political label, that can change color from one election to another and that often decide the fate of the ballot. Among the pivotal states: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas.
The unprecedented context of the pandemic
These U.S. elections are taking place in the unprecedented context of the pandemic, which has claimed nearly 230,000 lives in the United States and plunged the country into an historic recession. In addition to the health and economic crisis, this election campaign was marked by racial tensions following the death of George Floyd and other African Americans.
The distribution of votes in 2016 by population
In 2016, the majority of the minority vote was for the Democratic nominee, including the vote of black voters who voted 88% for Hillary Clinton, while white voters voted 58% for Donald Trump.
In terms of age voting, those over 45 and over 65 voted overwhelmingly for the Republican candidate, while younger voters, 18-29 and 30-44, voted for the Democrats.
Voting by gender: Hillary Clinton won the women's vote and Donald Trump won the men's vote.
Finally, turnout will be one of the major issues in these elections. For the past 20 years, it has averaged around 55%, a rate that could increase this year given the importance of postal voting.
